O’Connor: This Thanksgiving, be your own pollster

You are the best pollster in the country.

Only you don’t know it.

You are a better gauge of reality than Gallup, Rasmussen, Zogby or any other political polling group.

And the best time for you to conduct your poll is this Thanksgiving.

You, your family, and friends can be honest in both asking, and answering questions.

No need to say nice things, to lie, to hedge, or to sugarcoat the responses, lest you be labeled a “wing nut,” a “Palinista,” a “left coaster,” a “sexist,” or a “racist.”

These pejoratives add nothing to intelligent discourse. They stifle honesty. Avoid them in your polling.

No need for political correctness or fear that someone is hacking into your email or taping your phone conversations. No need to get the correct demographics, the right balance of cell phone and land line respondents, or even the right geographical mix.

We are all connected by six degrees of separation, and when you pool all the opinions of everyone around your Thanksgiving table (and their stories about their friends and neighbors), you have a galloping good start on reality.

Hug, kiss, and welcome everyone into the home. Then be very observant. Listen to what everyone says after the “ooohs” and “aaahs” over the meal-and before the rush to the football games.

Before you begin your polling; here are some simple tips.

Ask yourself the following questions:

In the last 18 months, how many of your friends, relatives, and acquaintances have:

• Lost their job, faced cutbacks, or fewer hours
• Lost their home (or are behind in payments); or worried about same
• Lost their health care insurance
• Lost money in savings, stocks, or pension funds (those once lucky enough to have these)
• Been furloughed or forced to job share
• Known someone deployed overseas–more than once
• Known anyone homeless or sleeping in their cars for longer than a night.
• Dropped out of college
• Cut back on anything because of rising costs
• Visited or served at the charitable food giveaways
• Visited mini-malls or shopping centers with “For Lease/Rent/Closed” signs
• Left the city or state for employment elsewhere

Then answer those questions with how many of those above have been rehired, bought a house, made more money, received a bonus, a promotion, a scholarship, or a raise, and seen new leases and/or fewer in the food lines.

You get the picture. After you answer those questions yourself; listen to the stories that surface at your Thanksgiving dinner and rate everyone else’s experiences.

No need for a pen and paper, but it makes for a great conversation starter. Just listen and keep track mentally. You will find a pattern.

That is why former President Ronald Regan’s simple question, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” is a classic. It summed up all the polls in just ten words.

Only this year, the question is “Are you better off than just last year?”

Lee Atwater, the pollster for former President George W. Bush, hung out at bowling alleys to get a feel for what moved people, and what made them mad.

You can do the same-in your family home. But, you must listen well; listen to the older folks in the room; to the students; to the veterans; to those unemployed; to those too afraid to speak, as well as those who vehemently disagree with your own positions.

See the divide, be it men versus women, old versus young, struggling versus not.

My family’s politics ranged from Archie Bunker to Angela Davis. So when we all agreed on something, it was what Thomas Jefferson called, “a fire bell in the night.”

We knew a tsunami was coming.

Add your answers all together, and you will know precisely the trend line for the 2010 elections; provided, of course, that you don’t all work for Goldman Sachs.

Maybe there is another sea change coming in the next election; maybe not.

One thing for certain, you will know before the governing class does.

Enjoy the exercise. It is as American as apple (or pumpkin) pie.

And Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours-whatever your political views.

Colleen M. O’Connor is a former college history professor, the director of the “Faces of San Diego 2000″ family photographic history project and co-editor of Eleanor Roosevelt: An American Journey.  She is an SDNN political columnist and can be reached at CoConnor15x(a)Yahoo.com

Tags: angela davis, archie bunker, gallup, goldman sachs, politicians and thanksgiving, politics and thanksgiving, rasmussen, SDNN, thomas jefferson, zogby

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 25th, 2009 at 8:37 am and is filed under Columns, Politics Opinion . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.