Sea changes in congressional districts create Democratic hope

The decreasing number of registered Republican voters in California is making some Democrats optimistic of a permanent sea change.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has hopes that eight congressional districts — which have seen a rise in registered Democratic voters - will seat a Blue Dog politician over its GOP incumbents.  The fact that the districts voted for Barack Obama instead of John McCain for presidency offers another sign of hope for the Democrats.

“All of these factors - declining Republican voter registration, changing demographics and the fact that these districts were won by President Obama last November - show that these districts are changing,” said DCCC spokesperson Andrew Stone.

In eight congressional districts in California, the number of Democratic voters has risen substantially between 2006 and today. The biggest increase happened in the 3rd congressional district (currently occupied by Rep. Daniel Lungren), which has seen more than 100,000 additional registered voters. (See Chart)

The change in numbers has caught the attention of Allen Hoffenblum, a GOP political consultant. In his latest commentary for the wonky news site, Fox & Hounds, he notes that the “plummeting” Republican voter registration “of 31% (is) a historic low.” Hoffenblum also notes that “for the first time there is not a single congressional, state senate or assembly district that has a majority Republican registration” in California.

But the numbers don’t stop there.

A September study by non-partisan think tank Public Policy Institute of California shows that 7.6 million — or 45 percent - of voters in California are Democrats while Republicans make up 5.3 million, or 31 percent. The report notes that before the 2004 presidential race between John Kerry and George W. Bush, there were 43 percent Democrats and 35 percent Republicans.

Although consultants across the political spectrum are analyzing the new numbers intensely, SDSU political science professor Ron King said “one should be wary in predicting fundamental realignment.”

Related Links: Candidates separate themselves in contentious 50th District | Bilbray calls health care reform bill a ‘budget buster’

“Far more often in U.S. politics, there is temporary deviation from an established pattern, that returns quickly soon afterwards,” he said. “It is important to know the difference between pattern realignment and temporary deflection/restoration of an ongoing pattern.”

King notes sea changes in party affiliation can be caused by three reasons:  One, a “major political shock”; two, a “strong leader” rises and shows he or she is “capable of re-working core party coalitions” and; three, a “generational change in which young voters are influenced to establish political patterns different from their parents.”

He uses former President Franklin D. Roosevelt as an example.

“This pattern, for example, applies to FDR and the depression, producing Democratic dominance where previously the Republicans had held sway.”

DCCC spokesperson Stone believes the change in registered voters is for other reasons. He notes that the districts voted for Obama and that “the Republican incumbents are out of touch and it’s clear that these districts are real targets of opportunity for Democrats.”

In fact, DCCC is so confident in the numbers  that they are working harder than ever in four of the eight districts, including Rep. Brian Bilbray’s (R-Calif.), where constituents are already seeing plenty of ads and mailers from the Blue side.

Stone also emphasized why a Democrat could unseat Bilbray next year.

“Specifically with regard to Brian Bilbray…” he said. “The 50th district is changing and Bilbray continues to vote against the interest of his constituents: putting massive insurance company profits before struggling middle class San Diego families, and opposing H1N1 pandemic flu funding, grants for Escondido police offers along with other law enforcement agencies, and funding for fire suppression efforts.”

The hope for a positive outcome from the sea change was reiterated during an SDNN interview with Congressional candidate Francine Busby - who has ran for the 50th Congressional District twice.  She notes this “sea change.”

“When I ran the first time, there was like a 16-point advantage to Republicans in this district and that’s been cut in half,” Busby told SDNN in an August interview. “In 2004, [they] elected George Bush with an 11-point margin…. In 2008, they elected Barack Obama with a four-point lead.  I think that shows a sea change in the priority of the voters.”

But Bilbray’s consultant Duane Dichiara isn’t focused on the new numbers. In fact, the long-time political advisor pointed out that Bilbray was re-elected in 2008 when voters also chose Obama over McCain.

“Brian Bilbray has always had big support from everybody in the political spectrum,” he said. “It’s unlikely from the current numbers that that occurrence was more than a ‘wave year’ incident - it just happens sometimes in politics.”

“You have to take what the D-triple-C say with a grain of salt. These are paid partisan employees - the same people who said they were going to win the 50th [Congressional District] in the last several elections and lost.”

Dichiara also noted that the number of Democratic voters isn’t just rising - but also, the number of Declined to State voters.

He’s right, when looking at the numbers. The number of Declined to State voters increased in the eight congressional districts with the biggest hike in the 48th congressional district (currently occupied by Rep. John Campbell), which numbers rose from 76,844 in 2006 to 95,569 in 2009. (See Chart)

But even despite the number of Declined to State - SDSU professor King said those who are most likely to vote are “strong partisans,” like Democrats or Republicans.

“The impact is that those most engaged in the political process tend to be those most likely to vote,” King said.

Further King noted though “optimists” like to believe changes like the economy and presidency play a factor in voting - there is still little proof.

“If I had to predict — and this is far more guesswork than analysis, since no real data exist yet — I would bet that all of the targeted California congressional districts will remain in Republican hands after 2010,” King said. “Sometimes political scientists are quite wrong…but the statistical probabilities are with us.”

Hoa Quach is the political editor for the San Diego News Network. Follow her on Twitter.

Tags: allen hoffenblum, andrew stone, Barack Obama, brian bilbray, california democrats, california republicans, daniel lungren, democratic congressional campaign committee, duane dichiara, FDR, fox & hounds, francine busby, franklin d. roosevelt, George W. Bush, John Kerry, John McCain, Public Policy Institute of California, revolvis, ron king, SDNN, SDSU

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