Seven warning signs for Sen. Barbara Boxer’s re-election

There are at least seven reasons why Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) should worry about her re-election chances.

1. She is the incumbent.

Having served as a U.S. Senator for three terms, and with the voters in an angry mood, even California Democrats can’t be counted on to get Boxer over the finish line.

Before her 17 years in the Senate, Boxer served 10 years in the House. She has never faced a serious challenger, and the Republicans are fielding strong, wealthy, female, former CEOs, as candidates for both Governor and Senator. That makes it a “Washington insider” versus a “business executive outsider.”

2. Boxer endorsed the now Independent, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.).

She endorsed him over anti-Iraq War candidate-and winner of the Democratic primary in Connecticut — Ned Lamont. This endorsement may come back to haunt Boxer.

Lieberman is unpopular among liberal Democrats. He is currently threatening to filibuster the Democrats’ health care bill in the Senate, because it contains a “public option”-something the left wing of the Democratic party is adamant about including. Lieberman is also threatening to thwart the climate change legislation that Boxer just moved out of her Environment and Public Works Committee without any Republican participation.

In California, the anti-war, pro-climate change, wing of the Democratic Party is still fuming over Boxer’s endorsement of the obstructionist Lieberman.

Those liberals may show their displeasure by sitting out the 2010 election, or voting for the Green Party candidate — rather than automatically voting for Boxer.

3. The Republican challenger, Carly Fiorina, will be a formidable opponent.

Though Fiorina was fired from Hewlett Packard, which will hurt her in San Francisco, the message Fiorina carries is that she is tough enough to cut spending, slash jobs, and create a business-friendly environment in the high-tax, highly dysfunctional state of California. She proved that as CEO of HP.

Fiorina may also appear as a more empathetic figure, having just survived a bout of breast cancer and chemotherapy. The ordeal, she quips, means she is “no longer afraid of Boxer.” This brush with death will resonate with a lot of women, formerly a huge factor in Boxer’s elections.

4. The initiatives on the ballot may bring out more angry Independent voters.

Several divisive and highly charged initiatives are making their way to possible inclusion on the 2010 ballot. The most dangerous for Boxer is the one intended to legalize gay marriage in California.

In attempting to roll back the passage of Proposition 8 (the anti-gay marriage initiative that passed in California in 2008 with 52 percent of the vote), a counter measure is currently being circulated for qualifying signatures.

Just how precarious this initiative remains, is demonstrated by the debate within the Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender (LGBT) community. Many argued that waiting for the next Presidential cycle, would insure a higher turnout, and thus, a better chance at passage. Off year elections bring a lower turnout and a higher percentage of older, more conservative voters. The recent success of the anti-gay marriage ballot proposition in Maine underscores these findings.

Furthermore, the winning team–against the right of gay marriage–is still in place.

More by Colleen: Say it ain’t so, Hillary | Obama’s connection to Humpty Dumpty | Time for back room deals in California | Hillary, Oprah, Sarah, Michelle — Bridge, anyone?

While Boxer may win in the big cities because of her support for gay marriage, she will lose some of her base among Roman Catholics, Latinos, and Blacks — the same constituency (along with Mormons) that supported the successful anti-gay marriage initiative (Prop. 8 ) just last year.

Targeted, single-issue mailings to these groups proved effective last year.

The initiative battle could also siphon money away from Boxer’s campaign.

Meanwhile, language in the pending health care bills — on abortions, Medicare cuts, and taxes — might also hurt Boxer among Catholics, the elderly, and suburban women.

5. Throw the bums out is a factor.

Democrats in California hold a 13 point advantage in voter registration and President Obama carried the state in November by 24 points. However, the 2009 election results in New Jersey and Virginia demonstrate how dramatically that point swing can change.

In addition, Boxer has never faced a serious challenger. Fiorina is already chiding Boxer about spending more time writing novels than legislation.

6. The Republicans have lots money.

The Republican Party will be awash in money. Their leading candidate for Governor, Meg Whitman, is a billionaire able to self-finance her election. That frees up contributions for other candidates.

The Republican Governors’ Association announced almost a year ago, that the statehouses would be their number one priority (as witnessed in New Jersey and Virginia) and that corruption would be a central theme.

With over 30 members of Congress currently under investigation for ethics violations, the anti-Washington fever will infect some Democratic races.

Experience may be a handicap next November.

California Attorney General Jerry Brown, the likely Democratic nominee for Governor, has about 40 years experience in public office and voters might choose him for their “experience” quotient and while selecting fresh faces down ballot.

7. Finally, Boxer hasn’t spent enough time among her constituents.

Complaints about her unavailability, especially during the summer health care forums, have given wavering voters yet another reason to vote against the incumbent.

None of these warnings signals defeat. Indeed, Boxer is still favored to win a third term. But, shaving only one or two points from each of these groupings, could spell trouble for the veteran U.S. Senator from California. Add on the congressional divide over adding the census question, “Are you a U.S. citizen?” and one already sees the nastiness of the 2010 elections.

The economy, wars, massive debt, and a dysfunctional, tone-deaf governing class, may produce startling outcomes in 2010 — even in California. Best to pay attention — especially in an anti-incumbent year.

Colleen M. O’Connor is a former college history professor, the director of the “Faces of San Diego 2000″ family photographic history project and co-editor of Eleanor Roosevelt: An American Journey.  She is an SDNN political columnist and can be reached at CoConnor15x(a)Yahoo.com

Tags: anti-iraq war, barbara boxer, california governor's race, california gubernatorial race, california senators, carly fiorina, environment and public works committee, health care bill, hewlett packard ceo, hewlett-packard, HP, iraq war, jerry brown, joe lieberman, LGBT community, meg whitman, ned lamont, Proposition 8, public option, republican governors' association, same-sex marriage, SDNN, u.s congress, u.s. house of representatives, u.s. senate

This entry was posted on Monday, November 9th, 2009 at 8:14 am and is filed under Columns, Politics Opinion . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.