What does Maine’s rejection of gay marriage mean for California?

Despite a fundraising advantage, an army of battle-tested staff and volunteers, and the support of the state Legislature and the governor, supporters of same-sex marriage in Maine failed to sway voters Tuesday.

Partners Lisa Brackbill, left, and Lisa Pugh, right, both from Buckfield, Maine console one another along with Darlene Huntress, center, of Portland, after learning about the unofficial defeat on Question 1 at election night headquarters in Portland, Maine, early Wednesday morning, Nov. 4, 2009. Maine voters decided decide to rescind the Legislature's approval of same-sex marriage.(AP Photo/Pat Wellenbach)

Question 1, a repeal of the New England state’s law allowing same-sex marriage, passed with 52.7 percent of voters in favor; nearly parallel to the 52 percent of California’s voters last year that passed Proposition 8, the Constitutional amendment banning gay marriage in the Golden State.

Maine’s vote resonates in California, where gay rights activists are divided whether to push for a repeal of the same-sex marriage ban in 2010, or wait until 2012, and many wonder what Maine’s rejection of same-sex marriage means for California’s movement.

“Maine was supposed to be the way the gay marriage movement overcame the loss in California with Proposition 8,” said Brian Brown, the executive director of the National Organization for Marriage in California, the largest donor to the ProtectMarriage.com-Yes on 8 campaign, and an executive committee member for Stand for Marriage Maine, the largest donor to the Yes on 1 campaign. “Everything was in their favor … (and) they still lost. The people of Maine do not support same-sex marriage, just as the people in 31 states in this country do not support same-sex marriage. In 31 states where same-sex marriage has been put to a vote, supporters of traditional marriage have won.

“There simply has not been a shift to support same-sex marriage (nationwide) - that’s just not true,” Brown continued. “Advocates of same-sex marriage want to take whatever poll that shows them ahead that day to use as a battering ram.”

Dr. Thad Kousser, an associate professor of political science at the University of California San Diego and a visiting professor at Stanford University, says, however, “Maine’s vote means nothing for California.”

“As Maine goes, California hardly notices,” Kousser said. “But, I think (Tuesday’s) results and recent polls showing President Obama with a 54 percent approval rating, means one year out, the 2010 election is shaping up to be a normal, off-year election, where the president and the ruling party finds itself in a sophomore slump. And that would bode poorly for attempts to undo Proposition 8.

“If there are going to be any tea leaves read, it would be that 2010 is not looking that great, and I think for strategists, that means a lot of uncertainty.”

Related links: Prop. 8: One year later, is gay marriage any closer? Calif. gay marriage supporters eye 2012 to repeal Prop. 8

Dr. Ronnee Schreiber, an associate professor of political science who teaches courses in American and California politics at San Diego State University, said it may be wise for supporters of same-sex marriage to “err on the side of caution” when deciding whether try to repeal Proposition 8 in 2010 or 2012.

“2010 will be midterm elections which, historically, go against the party in the White House,” she said. “If that is the case - and again, we’re talking historically - there will be more Republican voters, and that certainly isn’t going to help the cause.”

Brown said Maine’s vote dealt a “devastating blow” to supporters of same-sex marriage - one he’s not convinced they will recover from soon.

“I don’t think there’s a high likelihood of success whether it is in 2010 or 2012,” Brown said. “Clearly with the vote in Maine, in 2010, there doesn’t seem to be much evidence that would be a successful path to take.”

Frank Schubert, campaign director for Stand for Marriage Maine, claims victory for Yes on 1, Tuesday evening, Nov. 3, 2009, in Portland, Maine. Question 1 was the proposal to rescind the Legislature's approval of same-sex marriage(AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)

Similar stories unfolded in Maine and California. Supporters of same-sex marriage out-fundraised opponents - in Maine, by nearly twice as much - and had the support of their governors, prominent elected officials, and major daily print media outlets. They also had a great deal of momentum; in California, from the Supreme Court case that overturned an eight-year-old law defining marriage as a union between one man and one woman; and in Maine, from the state Legislature’s support of a same-sex marriage law that was signed by Gov. John E. Baldacci.

Similar endings unfolded too. In both states, supporters of traditional marriage - a marriage between a man and a woman - won by, roughly, 52 to 48 percent. And in both cases, the campaigns to undo same-sex marriage prevailed using identical strategies; namely, pointing out what they say the consequences of same-sex marriage would be. In both states, the most effective argument to mobilize voters was traditional marriage supporters’ claims that changing the definition of marriage would lead to same-sex marriage being taught in schools.

With the high-profile losses in California and Maine, the traditional marriage movement has new momentum.

“For gay rights activists, this definitely means they have to redouble their efforts,” Schreiber said. “From the anti-gay rights perspective, they will use this (Maine vote) to say the country isn’t ready for same-sex marriage, that it is not acceptable, and that the will of the people stands. Gay rights activists have to try to change public opinion and frame the issue differently.

“The key here from all this for gay activists may be they have to re-frame the issue, and figure out what arguments are working and what arguments are not working,” Schreiber continued. “They have to figure out how to appeal to voters.”

Geoffrey Kors, the executive director of Equality California (EQCA), the state’s largest gay rights organization, said there is still “hard work to do” for the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) community advocating for same-sex marriage.

EQCA endorsed a 2012 bid to repeal Proposition 8, despite a grassroots effort to move forward in 2010. Kors said, according to the organization’s analysis, same-sex marriage supporters have a 4 percent advantage of winning marriage rights in 2012.

Two people argue their differences regarding same-sex marriage in front of City Hall, in Portland, Maine, on Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2009, a day after voters rejected the gay marriage law. (AP Photo/Pat Wellenbach)

“We’re closing the gap; it means we have to tell more people our stories, make more phone calls, go door-to-door and engage voters in California,” Kors said. “If we continue to close the gap, we believe we can go back to the ballot in 2012 and be victorious. The message is keep at it, because we are making progress. This is a long battle. We believe 2012 is the best chance we have to win back our right to marry, and we believe we should focus our energy on the election. As people look at the results in Maine, and they take it and look at whether to go back to the ballot in 2010 or 2012, I think it makes clear, 2012 is a much better chance for us.”

Kors said he’s looking on the bright side. A ballot initiative in Washington upholding legal protections for domestic partners, and a ballot initiative in Kalamazoo, Mich., protecting LGBT people from employment and housing discrimination both passed. That illustrates progress, Kors said.

“It’s important to note, that while we lost in Maine, we won in Washington state and we won in Kalamazoo, Mich., and that shows we are starting to win ballot measures where we come together to do the work,” Kors said. “As we continue to move forward, it will take all of us to get engaged.”

Even if supporters of same-sex marriage put their best effort forward, Brown is skeptical a repeal of Proposition 8 would go over well with voters - particularly in light of Maine’s vote.

“I think, to me, the question isn’t so much about what Maine’s vote says for 2010 or 2012, but what it says about whether there is any likelihood for success in the immediate future for overturning Proposition 8 at all,” Brown said. “Whether that is in 2010 or 2012, I’m confident we’ll be successful upholding marriage as a union between a man and a woman.”

Joseph Peña is the lifestyle editor for San Diego News Network. He can be reached at joseph.pena(at)sdnn.com. Follow him on Twitter: @josephpena.

Tags: Brian Brown National Organization for Marriage, Brian Brown Stand For Marriage Maine, Dr. Ronnee Schreiber SDSU, Dr. Thad Kousser UCSD, gay marriage California, gay marriage Maine, gay rights California, gay rights Maine, Geoff Kors EQCA, Geoffrey Kors Equality California, No on 1 Maine, No on Proposition 8, Proposition 8 California, ProtectMarriage.com California, Quesiton 1 Maine, Repeal Proposition 8 2010, Repeal Proposition 8 2012, same-sex marriage California, same-sex marriage Maine, SDNN, Yes on 1 Maine, Yes on Proposition 8

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