NBA season preview: Western Conference

Every year, the NBA offseason proves to be a veritable swap meet, as teams try to add one or two pieces to try and reach “the next level.” This level is never really defined, nor is it a place that you can say you have reached until the end of the season, but that’s always the ultimate goal. Reach the next level.

As we take a look at the teams in the Western Conference, we’ll evaluate who is trying to reach “the next level,” who’s elevator is broken, and who has taken a sharp freefall.

(Ranked in predicted order of regular season finish)

Los Angeles Lakers
The defending champions pretty much stood pat in the offseason, save for acquiring forward Ron Artest via free agency. The Lakers, re-signed Lamar Odom, but let perennial “glue-guy” Trevor Ariza walk, coincidentally to Houston, where Artest left. That will be the big question this year. Will Artest, though a better player than Ariza, upset the natural order of things in L.A.? Will he demand shots? Will he stay healthy? Will he avoid the kind of immaturity that saw him thrown out of two playoff games against the Lakers last season? My guess is that L.A. will miss Ariza more than they like having Artest. They won’t be better, but they also won’t be worse, and that’s still good enough to be top of the table in the West.

Denver Nuggets
While a lot of the teams in the West re-tooled, the Nuggets had their “next level” moment last season, when they acquired Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson. Billups brought a veteran presence and led Denver, always a talented but rudderless team, to its best record in franchise history (54-28). This offseason, their two main acquisitions were shooting guard Aaron Afflalo and rookie point guard Ty Lawson, from North Carolina. Coach George Karl told me before the Nuggets took on the Lakers at the San Diego Sports Arena that “not all change is good change.” He’s hoping that his team can build on the chemistry it had last year in coming within two games of the NBA Finals. And with superstar Carmelo Anthony (25 years old), JR Smith (24) and Nene (27) ever-improving, Denver has the youngest core group of any competitive team, with the exception of…

Portland Trailblazers
Is this the REAL Greg Oden? You know, the one that is averaging 13.6 points, 9.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game? The one that was just named starter? The one that everyone in the organization slobbered over when they got the first pick in the 2007 Draft? Or the one who has been plagued by injuries in his first two seasons? Oden’s health and basketball growth will be one of the biggest talking points this year. If he plays up to his enormous potential, the Blazers could easily come out of the West. Yes, they are that good. They’ll be fighting with Denver for the Northwest Division crown. There will be no more than a couple games separating the two at the end, and Portland finishing on top wouldn’t be surprising in the least. With Brandon Roy, they have a crunch time killer. He’s ready to make the leap into the league MVP conversation.

San Antonio Spurs
Always in the conversation, and for good reason, the Spurs hope to bounce back from a disappointing 2008-09 season. Health has always been a factor, especially with star Tim Duncan, who has played more than 1,000 games in his 12-year NBA career. Shooting guard Manu Ginobili was also banged up last season, the result of sustaining an injury in the Olympics in the summer. He was never able to get right and had to sit out the entire playoffs.  Their window is quickly closing, but the addition of Richard Jefferson as an additional perimeter scorer means that come March and April, the Spurs will be lurking with intent. If anyone is to dethrone the Lakers, it might just be San Antonio. But it’s all about health.

Dallas Mavericks
Always contenders in the West, the Dallas Mavericks were embarrassed in their playoff matchup with Denver last year. Outplayed. Outclassed. Out-everythinged. And owner Mark Cuban, in his infinite wisdom (or is it infinite coffers?) upgraded by adding mercurial swingman Shawn Marion and Drew Gooden, a solid, veteran big man, via free agency. Whether it’s enough to get them back to the NBA Finals is the question. Will they be better? Maybe, but not enough to make an impact. The biggest problem with Dallas is on defense. They’re not big enough to hang with the likes of the Lakers and not quick enough to keep up with an uptempo team like the Nuggets. Dirk Nowitzki is still a mega star, and will help them with close to 50 games by default, but they’re just the wrong team in the wrong conference.

Phoenix Suns
The Shaquille O’Neal Experiment is thankfully over in the Land of the Sun. After coming in mid-season in early 2008, the Suns went from one of the most exciting teams in the league, to one that had lost its identity. A swift first round exit in 2007-08 was followed by the team missing out on the postseason last year.  But the run-and-gun Suns are back. Expect Steve Nash, star point guard and a part-time infomercial pitchman,  to play a few less minutes this year to try and keep his often-balky lower back fresh. Amar’e Stoudamire is back fully healthy, now two years removed from microfracture surgery and a scratched retina in his eye. Defensively, the team is still a little suspect, and smaller quicker guards will give Nash fits. But given its offensive firepower, this team has the ability to beat anyone in the league on any night. And on a lot of nights, they will.

Utah Jazz
Another team that can be an enigma is the Utah Jazz. They boast one of the best point guards in basketball in Deron Williams, but they lack quality depth at every other position to really be competitive in the loaded West. The continuing saga of whether or not Carlos Boozer will be traded could continue to be a distraction. All things are peachy now, but come February’s trade deadline? Coach Jerry Sloan is one of the best in the game, and he will keep them in the playoff hunt, but the window to a title has seemingly closed as fast as it opened a couple years ago in Utah.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Shocker special! I’m buying in. I’m drinking the Kool-Aid by the pitcher, not just the glass. Kevin Durant is that special of a player. The Oklahoma City Thunder will sneak into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed this year. Mark it down. Durant is otherworldly as a scoring forward. He could easily put up 30 on the daily this year. Russell Westbrook is electric at the point guard. James Harden gives them one of the most polished rookies to come into the league. And coach Scotty Brooks deserves a world of credit for keeping his young team competitive all last season, despite loss after loss. This year, some of those losses turn into wins. I’m all in. Maybe I’m a year early, but I think Durant showed what a leader he can be last year, and I really like them better than the other floundering options out West.

See related: Eastern Conference Preview | Lakers, Nuggets descend on San Diego

New Orleans Hornets
Poor Chris Paul. After leading the Hornets to the Western Conference Finals in 2007-08, the Hornets fell hard last year. David West returns to put up his usual 20-10 from the frontcourt. Swindling the Bobcats into taking Tyson Chandler in a straight up trade for Emeka Okafor will help defensively. There’s still just no firepower on the wings. Peja Stojakovic and James Posey are a year older, and the roster is devoid of anyone who can create his own shot outside of CP3. Just not enough pieces to surround a truly amazing talent.

Los Angeles Clippers
Is THIS the year the Clippers finally turn it around and compete for a playoff spot? Things looked good with the drafting of super rookie Blake Griffin, who would have made an immediate impact in the frontcourt with his scoring and rebounding ability. But in typical Clippers fashion Griffin will be out six weeks after sustaining a stress fracture in his patella (kneecap). At least the dunk was sick. But add him to shot blocker Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman and the Clips have the makings of a solid frontcourt. Baron Davis has promised to return to the level of play that he balled with while in Golden State, but until that happens, I’ll remain skeptical. The good news is that the team has enough super young talent (Griffin, Eric Gordon, Al Thornton) and veteran leaders to make a run. The bad news is that Mike Dunleavy is still the man in charge. Ugh. Never a good thing. And jumping out of the gate Griffin-less doesn’t help.

Houston Rockets
More a case of bad luck than not having the talent to compete, the Rockets will be decimated by injuries this season. All-world (literally) center Yao Ming will miss the entire season with a broken foot. Tracy McGrady is supposed to be out until mid-December after having knee surgery  last year. And Ron Artest has gone West to the Lakers. There are some nice players in piece, including point guard Aaron Brooks, power forward Luis Scola, and swingman Trevor Ariza, but there just isn’t enough to duplicate their success last year without Yao and McGrady. If they can keep their heads above water until the new year, maybe McGrady can play the superstar role again. But it’s less than likely, especially when he’s playing for a new contract and T-Mac’s priorities might not be in the right place. Can I see him eschewing team success in order to get his numbers? Absolutely. And that usually doesn’t lead to wins.

Memphis Grizzlies
Putting them above the rest of the teams in the West basement isn’t really an accomplishment for Memphis. They’re going to be bad. There is a lot of talent on the team, true. But with the additions of Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson, there just won’t be any cohesion, any chemistry, or enough shots to go around, especially when O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay are still trying to establish themselves as stars in the league. Thankfully, with fan support at an all-time low, and with the team hemorrhaging money every year, the Grizzlies might not be around for too much longer in Memphis.

Golden State Warriors
Let’s get one thing straight: there isn’t a more fun team to watch than the Warriors. Missed shot? Rebound it and put it back up. 3-on-1 fast break? Pull up behind the line and jack a three. Don Nelson coaches this team like he gets a contractual bonus for number of shots taken in the season. Sadly, that doesn’t translate to many wins. Defense wins championships, and in the case of the Warriors, games too. Since they don’t play defense, there will not be wins. It’s simple math. Still, Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry, Anthony Randolph and Co. will be tremendously entertaining for years to come.

Minnesota Timberwolves
New coach who has only 37 games of experience. New GM who mangled his first draft by picking four point guards and wasn’t able to sign the best one. Rising power forward who will miss the first two months with a broken left hand. Star center who is coming off a torn ACL and surgery. An average age of 25, which skews even higher thanks to a crappy backup center, who is the oldest player (33). That’s a lot to have to deal with for Minnesota. Al Jefferson is a stud, and guards Jonny Flynn and Ramon Sessions will put up numbers, but there will be little else to cheer for in Minnesota. Hey, at least the city’s got Brett Favre now.

Sacramento Kings
Last year’s tough luck losers in the NBA Draft Lottery (the Kings had the worst record last season, but ended up with the 4^th pick) drafted a nice player in guard Tyreke Evans. He and shooting guard Kevin Martin will team up to form a fantastic duo for the next few years. But that’s it. No quality bigs. No bench depth. No other scoring options other than Martin. A re-tread head coach. It’s just a whole bowl full of wrong. For all the money the Maloofs are sitting on, you’d think they would spend a little bit, or at least relocate the franchise to a place where players will actually want to sign.  They might not finish last in the conference, but they’ll be close to it.

What are your thoughts about the season? Share them in our comments section.

Eric Yates is deputy managing editor for SDNN. E-mail: eric.yates(at)sdnn.com.

Tags: al jefferson, blake griffin, brandon roy, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, chris paul, dallas mavericks, denver nuggets, dirk nowitzki, golden state warriors, greg oden, houston rockets, kevin durant, kevin martin, Kobe Bryant, lamar odom, los angeles clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, memphis grizzlies, minnesota timberwolves, monta ellis, new orleans hornets, oklahoma city thunder, phoenix suns, portland trailblazers, sacramento kings, san antonio spurs, SDNN, stephen curry, Steve Nash, tim duncan, tracy mcgrady, utah jazz, western conference

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