Hacksaw: Do or die draft deadline for Padres, Strasburg

The deadline is coming — Monday at midnight. It’s draft pick deadline time in baseball.

The datelines will read Washington, D.C. and San Diego.

You either sign a pro baseball contract, or you sit out a year. You either sign your first-round draft pick, or you lose him with little chance to get a player of equal quality a year from now.

Your name is Stephen Strasburg, the legendary pitcher from San Diego State.

Your name is Jeff Moorad, player-agent turned baseball owner.

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You both have enormous decisions to make.

Strasburg set high water mark pitching records for the Aztecs, and now with agent Scott Boras will try to set an all-time record for signing bonus and guaranteed money as the Washington Nationals number one pick in the draft.

Moorad faces the challenge of handing out the biggest bonus ever to a Padres draft pick, the Georgia high school sensation and number three pick, slugging outfielder Donavan Tate.

If you are keeping score at home, the highest contract ever given a first pick was the $10.5 million deal given to Mark Prior, the University High star, who went to USC eventually the Chicago Cubs. His career exploded to a 41-29 start before two shoulder surgeries and numerous setbacks ended his pitching days just last week.

Strasburg’s people want a record $20 million package guaranteed with escalators that could create a $50 million windfall over the first six years of his contract. Boras compares him to Boston Red Sox pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, who cost the Red Sox $53 million. The difference is that the Japanese right hander was a veteran free agent who had proven himself in Japan.

Strasburg’s dominance has been in college baseball with a taste of some international competition. Washington will have to pay, but will refuse to write a record check that most think the former Aztec does not deserve without having thrown his first professional pitch.

Negotiations have been followed by rhetoric about Strasburg going back to SDSU, going to Japan on a one-year deal, or going to the independent league. The risk is way too high.

What if he gets hurt? What if his velocity diminishes? What if the learning curve that first year is rougher than imagined? What leverage will he have next year? Do you think Kansas City, the Pirates, the Padres or the Nats — the cry-poverty teams, who will likely draft high next year — would pay Strasburg what he demands?

It is time for the Nationals to play hardball. Offer him the record deal that tops what Prior got — a $15 million guarantee with the chance to be in the majors within a year. And Washington should publicize the offer and tell the world they are not cheap and are willing to make him the greatest offer ever.

Put the pressure on the kid and his family to take control of his career; don’t let the agent use him as a negotiating ploy to change the draft. He needs to get his career underway.

The other wildcard in the Strasburg story is the changing culture of baseball. In the last 18 months, a truckload of top picks have arrived to the majors in the express lane.

Tampa’s David Price made it in half a year; Baltimore’s Matt Weiters spent three months in the minors; Rick Porcello is in Detroit ahead of schedule. So is future Atlanta ace Tommy Hansen. And look at the early stardom of the Giants’ Tim Lincecum. What is to say Strasburg could not be on the same fast track — maybe be the lead starter for the Nationals next spring coming out of the Grapefruit Circuit?

Donavan Tate is a different story. He’s a high school star in Georgia with options. A two-sport star, he is already on the North Carolina campus where preseason football workouts have begun. He is eligible to sign with the Padres until the Aug. 17 deadline.

Baseball, trying to seize out-of-control signing bonuses, has recommended a slot system for draft picks that would leave the third player making $3.4 million. Tate, also advised by Boras, is asking for at least $6 million guaranteed.

A high school slugger with enormous ceiling, power, five tools and great instincts, he has the most upside of the players taken early in that first round. Tate will not be in the major leagues a year from now. There is work to be done on his swing.

But no one doubts the talent, not after a 1.000 slugging percentage, a near-.500 batting average, 10 homers, 28 stolen bases his senior season in high school. Scouts view him as gifted as Mike Cameron and as powerful as Andruw Jones - the Braves version.

Heading to deadline week, three of the Padres top four draft picks are still unsigned, but Tate is the one they must secure.

In the trading frenzy of the last three weeks, the Padres have not only gotten younger, not only added seven new arms to their organization, not only brought all the blue chippers up to the majors; they have cleared $6.5 million in salary from the rest of this year’s budget, and at least $25 million in next year’s payroll with the removal of Jake Peavy’s contract and the expiration of the Brian Giles deal.

Jeff Moorad must take the freed up money he has now, and pour it into these draft picks. If Tate is the perfect fit for all the needs you have in spacious Petco Park, you must sign him. Tate needs to sign too. If he gets to midnight next Monday unsigned, he is frozen at North Carolina for three years as a college athlete and cannot be drafted again.

Strasburg can go no higher in next year’s draft even if he returns to the Aztecs. Who knows what Tate will be like from a health or ability standpoint after three years of splitting time as a running back and baseball player at North Carolina.

Bring the heat. The Nationals should put the heat on Strasburg and his agent and go public with that dollar offer. Moorad will take enormous heat if he does not sign his top draft pick, especially with the dollars available and his public stance of building by the farm system.

The deadline is coming to get that talented pitcher in Washington and to determine the credibility of the new owner here in San Diego.
Lee Hamilton hosts a National Baseball Talk Show on XM-175-Home Plate Channel, and writes two columns a week for SDNN.

Tags: Donavan Tate, MLB signing deadline, San Diego Padres, Scott Boras, SDNN, Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 11th, 2009 at 3:53 pm and is filed under Baseball, Padres, Sports . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.