Hacksaw: History shows Strasburg a risky prospect

Buyer Beware. The Baseball Draft. Big Arms, big dollars, big failure rate.

Tuesday, June 9th is an historic day in San Diego sports. Barring any stunning developments, San Diego State All-America pitcher Stephen Strasburg will be the first pick in the Major League Baseball draft.

The Aztecs have had a conga line of very good players who have gone on to the show. For Tony Gwynn, it was the campus to Cooperstown and the Hall of Fame. There’s Bud Black, the pitcher turned Padres manager and Kevin Kennedy, Fox broadcaster and former bench boss for Texas and Boston.

Related Links: More on Strasburg | More from Hacksaw

Free-spirited Cubs first baseman Mark Grace, legendary Cubs/Astros relief ace Dave Smith, Yankees third sacker Graig Nettles, ex-Dodger Chris Gwynn, A’s infielder Bobby Meacham and ex-Twin Al Newman all played for the Aztecs. Look in a box score today and you will find Cincinnati’s Aaron Harang, Boston’s Justin Masterson and the Mets’ Royce Ring amongst others. Even the umpires you love to hate — Doug Harvey and Kerwin Danley wore Aztec colors.

Strasburg put up historic numbers this year for the Red & Black — 13-1, 1.33 ERA and 195 strikeouts in 109 innings. He will also put up record numbers when he signs, likely with the Washington Nationals. Rumors of a record $12 million in guaranteed money — with agent Scott Boras demanding $50 million in total contract money — abound.

The 100 mph-fastball pitcher will be the 14th hurler selected as the first pick in baseball draft history. It’s an amazing story with how he developed with the influence of Tony Gwynn.

He’s not just a pitcher that can hurl it 100 mph. He’s a pitcher that can pick his spots at that velocity.

But the baseball scoreboard shows an enormous amount of failures of pitchers who went first on the draft board for various reasons.

Rushed to the majors too soon. Arm problems. Nasty holdouts. A fight. Ridiculous expectations. Awful teams. It’s all in the record book. Of the 13 first picks taken, not one pitcher won a Cy Young Award.

It’s the best and worst of situations for Strasburg. There’s a reason the Washington Nationals are drafting first. It’s a wretched franchise with a young roster. He will get to the major leagues quickly, but the weight of the Nats’ world will be on his right shoulder.

The former Montreal Expos franchise let its farm system fall apart as the club was left in limbo during a five-year run. The Commissioner’s office ran the team while seeking new owners, pulling it out of empty Olympic Stadium in Quebec.

There were the home games in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Playing in dark-dank RFK Stadium in Washington. Dealing away top prospects. Letting their pipeline to Caribbean talent run dry. They ran it into the ground. The Expos became the Nationals, a shell of a team, and a hell of a mess.

The days of Gary Carter, Steve Rogers, Andre Dawson, Ellison Valentine, Delino DeShields, Marquis Grissom, Rusty Staub, Pedro Martinez and Bill Stoneman are memories, gone forever. Strasburg will join one of the youngest pitching staffs in baseball whose future is ahead of them, but with a present that is painful to watch.

Of the 13 pitchers taken as the top pick in the history of the draft, only the Padres Andy Benes found long-term success (155-130). Floyd Bannister, a record-setting college hurler at Arizona State, was saddled with bad ball clubs, going from Houston to Seattle, toiling with a (134-143) ledger.

Mike Moore (161-176) was a career journeyman starting with Seattle. Tim Belcher (146-140) was a durable warrior with many mediocre teams including the Yankees, A’s, Dodgers and Indians. Ben McDonald showed the most promise (78-70) but his career was sidetracked in Baltimore with arm problems.

Injuries struck down many along the way. Brien Taylor, the high-priced Yankees pick, badly injured a shoulder in a fight involving his brother. He had no career. Promising lefthander Matt Anderson broke down after a short stint (15-7) and multiple surgeries with the Tigers. Paul Wilson of the Mets, Kris Benson of the Pirates and Bryan Bullington of the Pirates were all cursed with shoulder or elbow ailments while trying to get to the majors. They became journeymen and never lived up to the promise nor the costs of being the first pick overall.

Luke Hochevar refused to sign with the Dodgers, went back into the draft a year later and is still toiling in the Royals farm system where his uniform reads Omaha, not Kansas City.

If you are keeping score at home while rooting for Stephen Strasburg, recent drafts have been even crueler to pitchers. See the chart below tracking recent pitching success, or lack thereof, from the first round of the draft.

Year — top pick, team — number of pitchers taken in round one — pitchers with notable MLB success

2000 — Adrian Gonzalez, Florida — 16 pitchers — Adam Wainwright (St. Louis)
2001 — Joe Mauer, Minnesota — 18 pitchers — Jeremy Bonderman (Detroit) and Mark Prior (Cubs) made it; both broke down.
2002 — Bryan Bullington, Pittsburgh — 16 pitchers — Zack Grienke (Kansas City) — Cole Hamels (Philadelphia) and Joe Saunders (Angels) have lived up to the hype.
2003 — Delmon Young (Tampa Bay) — 10 pitchers — Chad Billingsley (L.A. Dodgers) and John Danks (White Sox)
2004 — Matt Bush, San Diego - 19 pitchers — Justin Verlander (Detroit) and Jered Weaver (Angels)
2005 — Justin Upton, Arizona - 13 pitchers — no impact pitchers
2006 — Luke Hochevar, Kansas City — 18 pitchers — Tim Lincecum (San Francisco) and Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)
2007 — David Price, Tampa Bay — 17 pitchers - Price and Rick Porcello (Detroit)
2008 — Tim Beckham, Tampa Bay — 10 pitchers taken — Detroit’s Ryan Perry

The first round of the draft can give you great stars like Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones and Reggie Jackson. It can give you the courageous story of the battle back from drug abuse of Josh Hamilton. It can also be the beginning of a dynasty. The Dodgers draft in one year included the dream infield of Davey Lopes, Steve Garvey, Ron Cey and Bill Buckner.

The draft can also break your heart; the heroin-related tragedy of Marlins pitcher Jeff Allison; or the year-long holdouts of Matt Harrington (Rockies) and Matt Wheatland (Tigers), who finally signed, but then blew out arms in independent ball or in the lower minors. Then there was Mets catcher Steve Chilcott, the top pick who signed, found out he couldn’t play and did not want to play.

The poster boy for impossible situations was David Clyde, the 18-year-old high school sensation taken by the pitching poor Texas Rangers. He went from high school graduation right to the mound. The southpaw, who threw five high school no-hitters, was expected to sell tickets and be a star.

Instead, pressure, expectations, poor performances and failure were the story. He was done six years later with an 18-33 record. It ended with depression, alcoholism and an early exit from the game many people thought he would dominate. Clyde never even qualified for a pension in baseball. Disillusioned, he disappeared from the limelight hating the game he thought he loved.

Old time baseball fans remember the era of the 1950s and the Bonus Babies. That’s why the draft was put in place starting in 1965. Since then, the bonuses have rocketed, the investments have gotten bigger and the risks taken even more damaging.

Of the 137 pitchers selected in the first round this decade, just 15 have made an impact with their clubs.

The Aztecs ace, with the 100-mph heat, awaits the chance to bring his high gas to lowly Washington. Strasburg will try to strike out batters and not be struck down by the history of first-round pitching failures.

Lee ‘Hacksaw’ Hamilton hosts baseball talkshows on XM-175 Home Plate Channel, and was a longtime host on XTRA 690-1360.

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This entry was posted on Thursday, June 4th, 2009 at 3:21 pm and is filed under Baseball, Sports. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.